Scenario planning is the strategic forecasting practice of modeling multiple plausible futures, typically a bull case, base case, and bear case. It varies multiple assumptions together to create coherent alternative scenarios, used to understand the range of possible outcomes, identify decisions that work across scenarios (robust strategies) vs decisions that work only in specific scenarios (fragile strategies), and prepare contingency plans. Distinct from sensitivity analysis (which varies one variable at a time), scenario planning bundles multiple assumption changes into holistic alternative futures.
The standard scenarios:
Bull case (everything works):